Editorial Wednesday 21 November 2012: 'Red Alert' Ashcroft polling: interesting on economics; fascinating on the NHS

Lord Ashcroft, whose tax domiciliary status was such a political talking point in the last decade, contines to spend some of his not inconsiderable fortune on party political opinion polling. Health Policy Insight previously picked up his previous findings here and here

Michael Ashcroft is a Tory and wants a Tory government, as his project shows - but has done a useful thing by focusing his latest psephology on Labour voters and joiners and considerers.

All of the findings are interesting (full report here and full data tables here - but those on the NHS are of principal relevance.

......................................................................

Click here for details of 'I'm a Health Secretary: Get Me Out Of Here!', the new issue of subscription-based Health Policy Intelligence.

......................................................................

'Project Red Alert' (ho, ho ho) does have one stunner on general politics and economics though: at Question 11, it asks 'Q.11 With our economy facing challenges in the months ahead, who do you most trust to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain, David Cameron and the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne or Ed Miliband and the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls?'.

The responses should make Lord Ashcroft somewhat concerned: the Cameron-Osborne lead is just 6%: 53% of respondents preferring the incumbents. 47% think Miliband and Balls would be better.

And 59% think that 'In two or three years time, the economy will be no better, and may be worse, than it is now'.

This is considerably surprising, given the Coalition's success in presenting Labour as 'the party of the deficit'.

It suggests that strategy is wearing thin.

And the Chancellor's Autumn Statement on 5 December, which will reveal how far off target the recovery is, remains to be delivered. 5 December is, purely co-incidentally, the date when the first round of CCG authorisations (with or without conditions) will be announced.

On the NHS, it asks as Question 13, 'Q.13 Which party do you think would have the best approach to each of the following issues - the Conservatives, Labour, or the Liberal Democrats - Improving the NHS?'

29% replied Conservatives.

17% replied Lib Dems.

54% replied Labour.

And this is before yet more 'Nicholson Challenge' efficiency gains and the closures of services.

People do not only vote on the NHS, although it is salient - as previous Ashcroft polls have shown.

But when you put that finding together with the slimness of the lead on the economy, it looks pretty challenging for the Coalition.

And for the Conservatives' health policy strategy? Now that's what I call retoxifying the brand.